Frequently Asked Questions

In a prediction market, the price represents the probability of an event happening. It is formed by participants trading with each other and is widely used for information aggregation and risk hedging; prices update in real time as new information arrives, rather than being fixed odds set by a house. Most public events on Aphma are resolved automatically from objective data sources such as market prices. Please read the risk disclosure page before participating.

You participate with USDC. The platform provides a custodial wallet, so you do not need to manage private keys or sign on-chain transactions yourself; once you deposit, you can participate right away. If you do not have any USDC, you first need to buy some on an exchange and withdraw it to your platform address.

Aphma offers three mechanisms: shared pool (parimutuel — the prize pool is split according to the final stake distribution), fixed odds (the creator sets the odds for each option and underwrites the payout), and LMSR automated market making (prices adjust automatically with buying and selling, representing the market’s current probability consensus).

The platform automatically generates rolling up/down window markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE, with windows of 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 1 day. The target price is a snapshot of the market price when the window opens; at expiry the outcome is determined automatically from market data and settled with no human judgment involved.

Public crypto price markets are resolved automatically from market data. Private circle markets are resolved by the creator according to the agreed data source, and the creator must provide evidence. If participants disagree, they can file a dispute within the dispute window after settlement; if the creator fails to announce the outcome in time, the system automatically refunds everyone in full and charges the creator a penalty.

Withdrawals require two-factor authentication (2FA) and a trading password. If you have set up a withdrawal address whitelist, you can only withdraw to whitelisted addresses, protected by a cooldown period. Key actions such as creating a market or announcing an outcome also require the trading password.

The platform charges a fee on trades, part of which is shared with the market creator (the market-making side). The actual rate depends on the event type, and the interface shows a full breakdown before you place an order. On-chain gas is paid by the platform — you do not need to hold any native tokens.